Thèse de doctorat en Sciences économiques
Soutenue en 2004
à Paris 9 .
Demographic evolution constrains French public deciders to reform their pay-as-you-go pension scheme. The problem is first analysed with the litterature about the agent's projections over his life cycle (in partial and in general equilibrium). Then a simulation modelizes the increase of retirement income risk in France with a risk of dependency at the end of life. Empirically households' precautionary behaviour is studied with a pseudo-panel data base of individual data built up from three I. N. S. E. E. Inquiries. We modelize the global accumulation behaviour by calculating matrixes of transition and estimating age-wealth profiles after correcting cohort effects. Variables of risk and of information are integrated into this analysis. We conclude that the information about long term income risks has changed significantly the global accumulation behaviour in France between 1986 and 1998.
Retirement risk. A study of precautionary behaviour of households
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