Analyse et modelisation de la demande d'energie du secteur des menages dans les pays en voie de developpement : application en chine

par YONGPING ZHAI

Thèse de doctorat en Sciences économiques

Sous la direction de Jacques Percebois.

Soutenue en 1989

à l'Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble) .

mots clés

Résumé

Psycologiques, cette notion de la "categorie hierarchique" permet de simuler l'evolution des besoins des menages. Pour satisfaire ces e(pouvoir calorifique, prix, rendement, commodite, proprete. . . ). Lorsque les valeurs numeriques de ces sous-dimension atteignent les niveaux maximun, l'energie correspondant est definie comme "ideale". Les experiences et enquetes montrent que la perception des menages vis-a-vis

Titre traduit

The developping countries : application in china

Résumé

Being complementary with the medee-s model, the new model constructed is a dynamic ones of the residential sector in the context of developping countries. Inspired by the microeconomics theory, we have classified the householder's energy needs into three hierarchical categories: basic needs, developping needs and luxurious needs. The case studies in the developping countries and industrial countries confirm this classification. The introduction of these concepts allow us to simulate the energy needs diffusion among the households. The different needs are satisfied by various energies which could be characterized by a multidimension vector: energy vector = e(calorific power, cost, efficiency, convenience. . . ). A type of energy is considered as "ideal" when each of its dimension reach the maxima value. The part of each type of energy in the market is determined with the following hypothesis: the more the real energy is closed to the ideal ones, the more the energy is probal to be chosed by householders. As a exemple, the proposed model has been applied in the cese of beijing area in china for forecasting the residential energy demand in 1995 and 2000.